Deloitte model reveals four scenarios for China’s health ecosystem in 2030 based on critical uncertainties affecting the value chain
HONG KONG SAR – Media OutReach – 23 June 2022 – Deloitte China today releases China Health Ecosystem 2030: A Scenarios Analysis, and a new study mapping the future of health in China by analyzing four scenarios that show how domestic and multinational pharma companies and other participants in the extended health ecosystem can assess its risks and opportunities to achieve sustainable development.
With people aged 65 or over about 17% of the country’s population by 2030, a rapidly aging population means improving health care matters more than ever for the Chinese Government. Over the past decade, China has implemented major reforms to promote access to health care, infrastructure investment, universal health care funding, and value chain consolidation.
Deloitte China Life Sciences & Health Care Industry Leader Jens Ewert says, “The Healthy China 2030 program is an ambitious blueprint for transforming China’s health care, with a series of core aspirations and principles for the future of health. “
The pandemic has highlighted the urgency of health care transformation to address issues such as underdeveloped diagnosis and primary care capabilities, strained funding, widening the gap between demand and supply, and disparities in the quality and accessibility of health care across China.
“With health and well-being now fully integrated into the policy-making at all levels, we are seeing an increasing focus on the health-related management of all, while minimizing gaps in the quality of care between urban and rural areas. populations. On top of this, disruptive and innovative health care models that combine tech, digital, and life sciences innovation are enabling more efficient delivery, ” Ewert adds.
Four scenarios for China’s health ecosystem in 2030
According to Deloitte’s research and interviews with China’s leading health care industry, the future of health in China will feature six mega trends: tiered health care; the rise of diversified funding models; innovation clusters; social-demographic shifts; empowered consumers; and smart health care.
Deloitte China Consulting Chief Strategy Officer Jiaming Li says, “To explore how China’s health care will evolve by 2030, we have developed a framework for scenario analysis based on critical uncertainties across social, technological, economic, environmental, and political aspects, enabling various players to better navigate China’s future health ecosystem and achieve sustainable growth by assessing strategic opportunities and risks. ”
Deloitte China Life Sciences & Health Care Consulting Partner David Xie says, “Based on supply and demand dimensions– transformation of consumer needs and behaviors, extent and variety of market participation in health ecosystem, we have mapped out four major scenarios for the future of China’s health ecosystem: national infrastructure boom, precision health care innovation, thriving consumerization, and smart population health. ”
With the degree of openness in policy regulation and the rapid adoption of innovative technologies, any combination of these scenarios could happen by 2030 or even sooner. The central theme underlying these scenarios is the importance of placing the design of a compelling, innovative health care experience and empowering consumers at the heart of health care strategies. New business models are essential to prepare for this more customer-centric future of health, as data, technology, and analytics have become core competencies.
Building China’s future of health
The report also explores how incumbents and disruptors in health care can come together to propel China’s health care industry transformation.
As the digitalization of operating and business models, realizing the full potential of possibilities for digitization, shared health care. Bold new policies and regulations will also be pivotal to catalyzing these health care systems.
Deloitte China Financial Services Consulting Partner Duan Lei says, “As an important stakeholder of the health care industry, they have also promoted integration between payment and services, creating a unique managed care business model with Chinese characteristics. ”
Xie concludes, “The four future scenarios show fundamentally different pathways toward realizing the Healthy China 2030 goals, all of which require systemic transformations of the health ecosystem.
Read the full report here.
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