Daily Markets: Stocks Look to Close Out Week on Positive Note

Today’s Big Picture

Asia-Pacific equity indexes ended today’s session up across the board to close out a mixed week. China and Hong Kong extended gains achieved over the past month while other regional markets (Japan, India, Australia, Korea, and Taiwan) gained back lost ground. While volatility in these markets has settled down, we are still seeing the occasional 2% +/- day. Resolution of the global energy picture, China’s pandemic response, and supply chain issues will go a long way to normalizing overall growth. We’re getting there but as the old cliche goes, we’re not out of the woods yet.

By mid-day trading, European equity indices are up across the board and US futures point to a positive open later this morning.

As we exit the week, equities are looking to put in the first positive week in June as falling commodity prices and weak new order data contained in yesterday’s various Flash June PMI data have sparked questions over the potential pace of interest rate hikes in 2023. recent comments by Fed Chair Powell that a surprise drop in the preliminary consumer sentiment reading was a factor in the Fed’s 75-basis point rate hike exiting its June monetary policy meeting, we expect the final reading for that metric out later today will be scrutinized more than usual. While it may seem counter-intuitive, the harder that sentiment data falls, the more likely equities will rebound as it will feed the evolving narrative of the Fed could take its foot off the interest rate hike pedal sooner than expected.

Note from the authors: The next edition of Daily Markets will be published on Tuesday, July 5th as we take some time off to rest and recharge ahead of the June quarter earnings season.

Data Download

International Economy

May Retail Sales in the UK fell 4.7% YoY, and then worse than expected 4.5% decline, but a sequential improvement compared to the upwardly revised 5.7% fall in April.

The Ifo Business Climate indicator for Germany fell to 92.3 in June from a 3-month high of 93 in the prior month, missing the expected reading of 92.9. The index of the current situation slipped to 99.3 in June from 99.6 the prior month, while the gauge assessing companies’ expectations decreased to 85.8 from 86.9. Per report, manufacturing companies assessed the current situation as slightly less good and are considerably more pessimistic about the second half of the year.

Economy Minister Robert Habeck shared Germany is heading for a gas shortage if Russian gas supplies remain as low as they are now, and certain industries would have to shut down if there is not enough winter coming.

Domestic Economy

At 10 AM ET, we’ll get the May New Home Sales report, which is expected to show a dip to 0.588 million homes sold vs. 0.591 in April. Also at 10, we’ll see the final reading for the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. The preliminary reading for that index plummeted to 50.2 from 58.4 in May, and the final June reading is expected to be unchanged. With inflation increasingly on the minds of investors and consumers, readers should look to the index’s sub-components, particularly the current economic conditions and consumer expectations figures for June, sizing them up against April and May.

Markets

Equities had a bit of a ride yesterday, testing intraday lows soon after the open and again after lunch, but rallied from 2:00 pm to the close. On the day, the Dow was up 0.64%, the S&P 500 gained 0.95%, the Russell 2000 advanced 1.27% and the Nasdaq Composite led the way, rising 1.62%. Energy names once again came under some pressure, joined by materials, industries, and financial names but optimism in everything else provided a good offset, pushing markets ahead.

Here’s how the major market indicators stack up year-to-date:

  • Dow Jones Industrial Average: -15.58%
  • S&P 500: -20.36%
  • Nasdaq Composite: -28.21%
  • Russell 2000: -23.77%
  • Bitcoin (BTC-USD): -55.49%
  • Ether (ETH-USD): -69.21%

Stocks to Watch

Before trading kicks off for US-listed equities, CarMax (KMX) and Carnival (CCL) are expected to report their latest quarterly results.

LendingTree (TREE) issued downside guidance for its June quarter, now calling for revenue in the range of $ 259-264 million vs. its prior guidance of $ 283-293 million and the $ 287.1 million consensus. In revising its guidance, the company noted the challenging interest rate environment combined with annual inflation persistently running above 8%, which presented additional challenges for many of its mortgage lending and insurance partners. The most significant impact has been seen in its Home segment as mortgage rates have nearly doubled over the last six months, causing a sharp decline in refinance volumes and on purchase activity. LendingTree is reviewing its full-year guidance for 2022 and intends to provide a revised outlook when it formally announces its June quarter results.

FedEx (FDX) reported May quarter EPS of $ 6.87, $ 0.01 below the consensus forecast, with revenue for the quarter climbing 8.1% YoY to $ 24.39 billion, which also narrowly missed the consensus of $ 24.56 billion. For its upcoming year, fiscal 2023, the company sees EPS of $ 22.50-24.50, which nicely bookends the current consensus of $ 22.40.

The May quarter bottom-line loss at CalAmp (CAMP) came in greater than expected as revenue fell 18.8% YoY to $ 64.7 million, missing the $ 69.4 million consensus. The company did not offer any formal forward guidance but shared visibility into product ships still remains uncertain due to the global component supply shortages.

Blackberry (BB) reported a modest top and bottom line beat for its May quarter even though revenue was down 3.4% YoY. Its IoT revenue rose 19% YoY while its cybersecurity revenue climbed 6% YoY. Management shared the company continues to invest in both the IoT and cybersecurity markets, and this is likely to result in negative EPS and cash flow this year but Blackberry targets becoming EPS and cash flow positive beginning in its fiscal 2025.

Intel (INTC) announced it put the groundbreaking ceremony for its $ 20 billion chip plant in Ohio on hold sharing that, “the scope and pace of our expansion in Ohio will depend heavily on funding from the CHIPS Act. Unfortunately, CHIPS Act funding has moved more slowly than we expected and we still don’t know when it will get done.The CHIPS Act allots more than $ 52 billion for semiconductor production and research has stalled in Congress as lawmakers look to work out differences between two versions of legislation recently passed in each chamber.

Following a Wall Street Journal article that buyout firms are circling Zendesk (ZEN)its shares popped in aftermarket trading last night.

The Fed released the results of its annual bank stress test, which showed that banks continue to have strong capital levels, allowing them to continue lending to households and businesses during a severe recession. While this will news will affect a number of banks, the larger ones including Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C), Goldman Sachs (GS), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Morgan Stanley (MS), and Wells Fargo (WFC), are likely to receive more attention on this news than others. Typically soon after the passage of these stress tests, if their Boards are so inclined, banks tend to announce fresh dividend increases that will be paid out over the coming 12 months.

NerdWallet (NRD) looks to acquire On the Barrelhead, Inc., a data-driven platform that provides consumers and SMBs with credit-driven product recommendations. subject to customary purchase price adjustments, consisting of approximately $ 70 million in cash and $ 50 million in NerdWallet Class A common stock.

IPOs

Readers looking to dig more into the upcoming IPO calendar should visit Nasdaq’s Latest & Upcoming IPOs page.

After Today’s Market Close

There are no companies expected to report their quarterly results after equities stop trading today. Those looking for more on which companies are reporting when, head on over to Nasdaq’s Earnings Calendar.

On the Horizon

Monday, June 27

  • US: Durable Orders – May
  • US: Pending Home Sales – May
  • US: Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index – June

Tuesday, June 28

  • Germany: GfK Consumer Climate – July
  • France: Consumer Confidence – June
  • US: Retail Inventories – May
  • US: S&P Case-Schiller Housing Price Index – April
  • US: CB Consumer Confidence – June
  • US: Richmond Manufacturing Index – June

Wednesday, June 29

  • Japan: Retail Sales – May
  • Japan: Household Confidence – June
  • UK: Bank of England Consumer Credit – May
  • Eurozone: Business Climate and Consumer Confidence Surveys – June
  • US: Weekly MBA Mortgage Applications
  • US: PCE Price Index – 1Q 2022
  • US: Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories

Thursday, June 30

  • China: Manufacturing, Services, and Composite PMIs – June
  • Japan: Construction Orders, Housing Starts – May
  • Germany: Import Price Index, Retail Sales – May
  • France: Consumer Spending, Producer Price Index – May
  • Italy: Producer Price Index – May
  • Eurozone: Unemployment Rate – May
  • Germany: Consumer Price Index – June
  • US: Weekly Initial & Continuing Jobless Claims
  • US: PCE Price Index – May
  • US: Personal Income & Spending – May
  • US: Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories

Friday, July 1

  • Japan: Tokyo Core Consumer Price Index – June
  • Japan: Unemployment Rate – May
  • China: Caixin Manufacturing PMI – June
  • Eurozone: Manufacturing PMI, Consumer Price Index – June
  • UK: Manufacturing PMI – June
  • Italy: Consumer Price Index – June
  • US: S&P Global Manufacturing PMI – June
  • US: ISM Manufacturing Index – June
  • US: Construction Spending – May

Thought for the Day

“To model yourself after Steve Jobs is like,‘ I’d like to paint like Picasso, what should I do? Should I use more red? ‘”- Larry Ellison

Disclosures

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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