Revlon, Inc. (NYSE: REV) surprised the market with several debt holders, which made the stock price spike up from $ 2 to around $ 8 per share. I understand the optimism about the stock, but I invite investors to be cautious about the stock. Without sufficient innovative beauty products in new collections and agreements with debt holders, REV could be overvalued. Under my DCF model, the amount of future free cash flow projections until 2030 is lower than the total debt obligations due from 2023 to 2025.
Founded in 1932, Revlon, Inc. is the owner of several brands and seller of cosmetics, skin care, fragrance, and personal care products. Revlon’s brands include American Crew, Elizabeth Arden, CND, or Almay, which could be worth millions of dollars because of the money invested in marketing throughout the years.
With the presentations being done, let’s note that Revlon became quite an interesting stock after jumping from close to $ 2 in June 2022 to around $ 8. Before I deliver the information that made the stock jump, have a look at the company stock charts.
In June, Revlon provided information about new borrowing facilities worth $ 375 million, which may explain the recent price dynamics:
The story doesn’t end here. In another press release, Revlon noted a new $ 575 million in debtor-in-possession financing. I appreciate the optimism exhibited by market participants. However, I believe that investment research seems necessary to explain the current financial situation. Considering the total amount of debt, in my view, the current valuation is difficult to justify.
Upon receipt of court approval, the Company expects to receive $ 575 million in debtor-in-possession financing, which will provide liquidity to support day-to-day operations.1 strong support by the Company’s lenders will help the business to manage customers. Source: Revlon Takes Step Towards Reorganizing Capital Structure as the Company Continues to Execute Against Its Strategic Plan
In recent years, investors have to understand the current capital structure:
Today’s filing will allow Revlon to offer our consumers the iconic products we have delivered for decades, while providing a clearer path for our future growth. Consumer demand for our products remains strong – people love our brands, and we continue to have a healthy market position. But our challenging capital structure has limited our ability to navigate macro-economic issues in order to meet this demand. Source: Revlon Takes Step Towards Reorganizing Capital Structure as the Company Continues to Execute Against Its Strategic Plan
Balance Sheet: The Total Amount Of Debt Includes $ 3.3 Million In Long-Term Debt
As of March 31, 2022, the company reports $ 2.3 billion in total assets and $ 3.3 million in long-term debt. The company balance sheet does not look good at all. We are talking about a company that is going through a reorganization process because of its level of debt. The reorganization received so much attention by the market that I decided to conduct research on the company.
Optimistic investors may say that the company may be preparing to reduce its long-term debt in 2022.
Assessment Of Net Revenue, EBITDA Margin, And Operating Margin
From 2018, Revlon’s net sales, EBITDA margin, and operating margin seem impressive. The median net sales growth stands at 4% -5%, the median EBITDA margin is close to 13%, and the operating margin is close to 3% -4%. Have a look at the figures reported by Revlon because I will use these figures in my financial models.
With sales growth close to 4.9%, the EBITDA margin of 13% -14.7%, and operating margin around 4% -5%, 2030 EBIT would stand at $ 167 million.
From the year 2000, changes in working capital / sales ranged from -16% to close to 8%. With this in mind, I believe that changes in working capital / sales around 2% seem reasonable.
From 2022 to 2030, I assumed growing depreciation and amortization along with declining capital expenditure. My figures included 2030 A&E of $ 305 million, 2030 changes in working capital of $ 64 million, and 2030 capex of $ 19 million.
Let’s note that my free cash flow expectations seem overall very optimistic. However, the amount of free cash flow does not seem sufficient to pay the total amount of debt. The free cash flow that resulted from my included cash flow close to $ 184- $ 353 million. Using a discount of 10.5%, the net cash flow stands at $ 1.3 billion. If we become even more optimistic, with a discount of 4.5%, the implied sum of FCF stands at $ 1.7 billion.
Revlon may have close to $ 3.4 billion in 2023, 2024, and 2025, which is above the potential FCF that may be generated from 2023 to 2030. I really don’t see Revlon paying all its debts.
Valuation If Revlon Receives Additional Financing Or Debt Holders Offered A Deal
Under very optimistic conditions, which could lead to revenue growth. Let’s note that I am assuming that debt management is running these activities. With the current amount of cash, I do not believe that management is in the past:
Strengthening its iconic brands through innovation and relevant product portfolios; second, building its capabilities to better communicate and connect with its consumers through media channels where they spend the most time; and third, requiring availability of its products where consumers shop, both in-store and online. Source: 10-Q
Besides, I assume the company Global Growth Accelerator program will help the company improve its free cash flow margins. The result would be that more and more investors are looking for:
The Company has continued to deliver against the objectives of the Revlon Global Growth Accelerator program, which includes rights to our organization with the objectives of driving improved profitability, cash flow and liquidity. The Company is also managing the business to conserve cash and liquidity, as well as focusing on stabilizing the business, growing e-commerce and preparing the foundation for achieving future growth. Source: 10-Q
Finally, I believe that Revlon could soon reach an agreement to sell some assets, which would bring a significant amount of cash. Let’s note that management is already exploring transactions:
MacAndrews & Forbes and the Company continue to explore strategic transactions involving the Company and third parties. Source: 10-Q
With a suggested discount of $ 3.59 billion, which is more optimistic than other investment advisors. Note that I am using the exit valuation of 11x, which is extremely optimistic for a company like Revlon. It’s a lot of debt, so I wouldn’t be surprised if Revlon trades at 2x or even 4x EBITDA. Finally, the equity valuation would close to $ 220 million. The implied share price would stay at around $ 4 per share.
Inflation Risks And Lack Of New Products Could Also Destroy The EBITDA Margins, And Push The Stock Price Below $ 4
With inflation, Revlon’s EBITDA margin and free cash flow figures could decline significantly. If management cannot increase its prices without affecting demand for its products, the EBITDA will likely decline. Supply chain issues or delays from raw materials suppliers would also affect the company operations. Revlon discloses these risks in its last annual report.
The Company purchases raw materials, including essential oils, alcohols, chemicals, containers and packaging components, from various third-party suppliers. Substantial cost increases. The Company does not have any unavailability of raw materials or other commodities, but it is not possible to carry out such operations. by achieving cost efficiencies in its supply chain, manufacturing and / or distribution activities. Source: 10-K
If Revlon does not design innovative beauty products, or clients do not appreciate the new collection, revenue growth may decline. In the worst-case scenario, the company’s EBITDA margin would decline significantly, which could push the company fair price below $ 4.
The company has a rigorous process for the continuous development and evaluation of new product concepts, led by executives in marketing, sales, research and development, product development, operations, law and finance. However, consumer preference and spending patterns change rapidly and cannot be predicted with certainty. There is no guarantee that the company will anticipate and respond to trends for beauty products effectively. Source: 10-K
I understand the recent loans and debt holders. If the stock reaches a higher level of debt financing, the stock price may trend even higher. With such innovative products and transactions with third parties, it is likely to be sufficient to pay the total debt outstanding. Considering the results of my DCF model, I believe the company is quite overvalued, and may trend lower in the near term.